How Effective have Lockdowns Been?

Location IntelligencePharma
Data Sutram

Data Sutram

July 29, 2020

11clap

133 out of 178 that is over 75% countries issued a lockdown at the cost of billions of dollars in GDP.

Image for post

However, how successful has a lockdown been in reducing the rate of increase of cases?

178 countries have been taken into consideration for this study. A Lockdown Restriction Index (LRI) is defined by taking into consideration data points from Oxford’s Coronavirus Government Response Tracker.

The LRI has 4 values which can be defines as :

0 — no measures
1 — recommend not leaving house
2 — require not leaving house with exceptions for grocery shopping, daily exercise and ‘essential’ trips
3 — require not leaving house with minimal exceptions (eg allowed to leave once a week, or only one person can leave at a time, etc)

In this article,estimates are made on the ‘Effectiveness’ of Lockdowns is computed for Lockdowns with LRI greater than and equal to 2.

Sample Selection

The 50 countries with the highest population and the 50 countries with the highest Confirmed COVID 19 Case Count were considered for this study. The Sample set of countries was divided into 3 subsets:

Image for post

1. Most Affected Countries :The countries that are in the list of 50 countries with the highest case count but not in 50 countries with highest population

2. Neutrally Affected Countries : The countries that are in the list of 50 countries with the highest case count and in 50 countries with highest population

3. Least Affected Countries : The countries that are not in the list of 50 countries with the highest case count but in 50 countries with highest population

Method

To compare the effectiveness of lockdown, first one needs to be able to compare all countries at a same scale.

Mexico’s case count of 331,298 cases with a population of 12.6 crores cannot be compared to Spain’s case count of 307,335 with a population of 4.7 crores.Even though the case count for Mexico is higher % of population infected is much lesser.

Hence the metric Cases per Million of population for different countries was calculated as follows:

Image for post

The next step is to compare the changes in Lockdown Restriction Index (LRI). In the plot below depicts the cases per million on the y axis and LRI using the secondary y axis for India.

Image for post

The slope of the Cases per Million curve denotes the rate at which cases are increasing.

If lockdowns were successful the slope should have decreased after the lockdown began. Since, 14 days is the incubation period for COVID 19 according to WHO, any cases that were contracted before the lockdown began would be confirmed in the first 14 days of lockdown. Hence, in order to calculate effectiveness we compare the slope of the curve on the day of the lockdown and 14 days later,

Image for post

In the above picture, the slope has evidently increased, which implies that the rate of increase of cases has increased even after lockdown measures were put in place.

Computing the Effectiveness of a Lockdown

The slope denotes the rate at which Cases per Million is increasing, therefore the % decrease in the slope is a clear indicator of how effective the lockdown has been.

The effectiveness of a lockdown is calculated as follows:

Image for post

Effectiveness Index is nothing but the % decrease in slope.

‘+X’ Effectiveness Index implies, the rate of increase of cases was reduced by X% and hence the lockdown was effective

‘ –X’ Effectiveness Index value implies, the rate of increase of cases was increased by X% and hence the lockdown was ineffective

Observations

Image for post

The highest % of countries that did not have a lockdown belong to the Least Affected subset, which implies that imposing a lockdown, does not necessarily mean that countries would be successful in curbing the spread of the virus.

Let’s take a look at the % of countries the lockdown was successful for in different sub-groups.

Image for post

It can be observed that,

  • In the total set of countries lockdown with LRI 3 was able to decrease the rate of increase of cases for 25% of the countries.
  • In the total set of countries lockdown with LRI 2 decrease the rate of increase of cases 23.2% of the countries.

Hence, in conclusion:

It was observed that imposing a lockdown does not necessarily imply that the rate of increase of cases will go down or that the curve will flatten.

A Lockdown that require not leaving house with exceptions for grocery shopping, daily exercise and ‘essential’ trips is only likely to be able to flatten the curve 23% of the time.

A Lockdown that require not leaving house with minimal exceptions (eg allowed to leave once a week, or only one person can leave at a time, etc) is only likely to be able to flatten the curve 25% of the times

Data Sources :

  1. Oxford’s Coronavirus Government Response Tracker
  2. Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) Cases, provided by John Hopkins University CSSE
  3. United Nations, World Population Prospects

The above conclusions are subject to interpretation and depend on the data source we have worked with.

clap11 claps

LIKE WHAT YOU READ?

Connect with us to know how
Datasutram can help your business

Articles for you

Going Hyperlocal: The Next Big Thing For India’s Pharma Industry

Going Hyperlocal: The Next Big Thing For India’s Pharma Industry

LOCATION INTELLIGENCE

There is a massive dearth of predictive analytics to understand consumer behavior to streamline OTC product marketing, especially FMCG/non-prescription drugs

Rajit Bhattacharya

Rajit Bhattacharya

December 31, 2020

How Businesses Can Up Their Game Using Location Intelligence

How Businesses Can Up Their Game Using Location Intelligence

LOCATION INTELLIGENCE

Apart from AI, big data analytics, ML, Today Locational Intelligence (LI) is another such innovation that has recently joined the technology bandwagon.

Rajit Bhattacharya

Rajit Bhattacharya

January 19, 2021

Four Ways AI And Location Intelligence Are Guiding The Future Of Business

Four Ways AI And Location Intelligence Are Guiding The Future Of Business

LOCATION INTELLIGENCE

Businesses are working through digital transformation and are handling pandemic-related recovery issues, they’re dependent on technologies—both proven and innovative—to stay on track.

Rajit Bhattacharya

Rajit Bhattacharya

January 28, 2020

DataSutram launches its Plug & Play Location Intelligence Platform

DataSutram launches its Plug & Play Location Intelligence Platform

LOCATION INTELLIGENCE

DataSutram launches its Plug & Play Location Intelligence Platform, enabling businesses to make faster data-driven decisions

CXO Outlook

CXO Outlook

Febuary 15, 2021

Making COVID-19 vaccine distribution more efficient with data mapping

Making COVID-19 vaccine distribution more efficient with data mapping

PHARMA

How location technologies can be an essential tool to optimise the supply chain, identifying where vaccines need to go

Rajit Bhattacharya

Rajit Bhattacharya

March 2, 2020

How Smart Cities can be Smarter using Location Intelligence

How Smart Cities can be Smarter using Location Intelligence

LOCATION INTELLIGENCE

What if we are able to track the progress of a smart city in terms of human capital, opportunities, and so on?

Data Sutram

Data Sutram

December 22, 2020

Steady Supply of Resources in times of a Pandemic

Steady Supply of Resources in times of a Pandemic

PHARMA

COVID-19 has provided as opportunity for Datasutram to showcase the utility of their analytics engines. The founders claim they have managed to increase deliveries by more than 30 percent for some of their clients. Among products they facilitated are hand sanitisers, medicines, essentials, among others.

Money Control

Money Control

April 22, 2020

Hyperlocal 15-min cities and Location Intelligence

Hyperlocal 15-min cities and Location Intelligence

LOCATION INTELLIGENCE

Location Intelligence could be put to use in one of the C40 cities — Bengaluru. The entire city could be divided into 650+ 15 minute cities.

Data Sutram

Data Sutram

November 18, 2020

An Effective Distribution of COVID Vaccine using Location Intelligence

An Effective Distribution of COVID Vaccine using Location Intelligence

LOCATION INTELLIGENCE

The vulnerability score coupled with hospital and pharmacy potential scores, the affluence and income class could help us predict the demand of the vaccine at a very granular level.

Data Sutram

Data Sutram

October 21, 2020

How Effective have Lockdowns Been?

How Effective have Lockdowns Been?

LOCATION INTELLIGENCE

If lockdowns were successful the slope should have decreased after the lockdown began.

Data Sutram

Data Sutram

July 29, 2020

Marketing A Store In the Post Covid World

Marketing A Store In the Post Covid World

LOCATION INTELLIGENCE

To help you in adjusting to the new normal, DataSutram has come up with a strategy- a Location Intelligence driven Market Connect tool to make door-to-door marketing quicker and more efficient.

Data Sutram

Data Sutram

June 19, 2020

Audience Match: A data-driven Geotargeting system

Audience Match: A data-driven Geotargeting system

LOCATION INTELLIGENCE

Answering the ‘Why’ and the ‘Where’ to boost E-commerce, Marketing & Offline Store Performances

Data Sutram

Data Sutram

April 23

Electric Vehicle Charging Station: Location Optimization

Electric Vehicle Charging Station: Location Optimization

LOCATION INTELLIGENCE

Electric Vehicles are soon to take to the streets in India. EV companies are already strategizing investments and looking to launch vehicles in the market soon.

Data Sutram

Data Sutram

April 17, 2020

Marketing: Micro-targeting & Location Intelligence

Marketing: Micro-targeting & Location Intelligence

LOCATION INTELLIGENCE

Electric Vehicles are soon to take to the streets in India. EV companies are already strategizing investments and looking to launch vehicles in the market soon.

Data Sutram

Data Sutram

April 9, 2020

How to regulate supply in Pandemic?

How to regulate supply in Pandemic?

LOCATION INTELLIGENCE

Location Intelligence and AI can predict impending demand choke-points and lower the possibility of such an event occurring.

Data Sutram

Data Sutram

March 23, 2020

Location intelligence for business insights

Subscribe to our newsletter

© 2020 Copyright: Extrapolate Advisors Pvt. Ltd.
© 2020 Copyright: Extrapolate Advisors Pvt. Ltd.